What is Double Chance?
Double chance covers two of the three possible results in one bet: Home or Draw (1X), Draw or Away (X2) and Home or Away (12). Because two outcomes win, odds are lower than on a single result.
How it settles. Settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalties are ignored.
How often does Double Chance happen?
Across 172,532 finished matches stored in the Predictvilla database, the home team not losing happened in 68.1% of games. That is the baseline any selection has to beat: a pick is only worth following when the chance is meaningfully higher than this average for the league concerned, and the odds are longer than that chance implies.
The average hides large differences between competitions. Among leagues with at least 400 matches on record, the home team not losing was most common in Nigeria NPFL (89.7%), Morocco Botola 2 (80.6%), Argentina Torneo Federal A (79.8%) and least common in Slovakia Cup (35.6%), France Coupe de France (50.5%), Germany Oberliga - Hamburg (60%). This is why the same market behaves differently from one country to the next, and why we compare each fixture with its own league rather than with football in general.
For reference, across the same 172,532 matches the result split was 43.8% home wins, 24.2% draws and 31.9% away wins.
How Predictvilla picks Double Chance
Every selection comes from the same process. We estimate how many goals each team is likely to score from its recent scoring and conceding record, adjust for home advantage in that league, and convert the result into probabilities. Those probabilities are then calibrated against past matches the model has not seen, so a stated 70% chance has to behave like 70% in practice.
A pick is published only when the model's chance beats the league average for that market by a clear margin, or when the overall confidence score reaches the publishing threshold. Fixtures with missing team data are held back rather than guessed. You can see our verified results, including losses, on the statistics page.
Reading the confidence score on Double Chance picks
Each pick on this page carries a confidence score. It combines several checks into one number: how both teams have been performing recently, how many goals they score and concede, how they have fared against each other, injuries and suspensions, and how reliable our past picks have been in that league. Where a check has no data we use a neutral value instead of inventing one, and a pick with no verified team data is never published as a strong selection.
A higher score means more of those checks agree, not that the outcome is certain. Treat 80% as a stronger case than 65%, never as a promise, and compare the stated chance with the odds on offer before you decide whether the price is fair.
A worked example: is the price fair?
Odds only make sense next to a probability. Decimal odds of 1.90 imply a 52.6% chance (1 divided by 1.90). If you believe the real chance of Double Chance is 60%, the price is generous and has positive expected value; if you believe it is 48%, it is not, however attractive the selection looks. Odds of 2.50 imply 40%, and odds of 1.40 imply 71.4%. The bookmaker's margin sits on top of these numbers, so the true chance has to clear the implied figure by a margin before a bet is worth placing.
This is why a short price on a likely outcome and a long price on an unlikely one can both be poor bets, and why we publish the chance next to every pick rather than only the tip.
Related prediction markets
If Double Chance does not suit a fixture, these categories answer similar questions in a different way: Draw No Bet, 1X2 Match Result, Home Win.
What to check before backing Double Chance
- A strong home side that rarely loses at home (1X)
- A resilient visiting side (X2)
- Matches likely to produce a winner, where the draw looks unlikely (12)
Common mistakes
- Assuming that double chance is safe: low odds still lose
- Accepting very short odds without checking the real chance
Questions people ask
Is double chance the same as Draw No Bet?
No. Double chance wins on a draw; draw no bet refunds the stake instead.
Staking and bankroll
Decide a fixed stake before the weekend starts, usually a small percentage of the money set aside for betting, and keep it the same whatever the last result was. Flat staking is dull but it protects you from the two most expensive habits in betting: raising stakes after a win because you feel invincible, and raising them after a loss to win it back. Keep a record of every bet, including the odds and the reason you placed it, so that after a month you can see what is working rather than what you remember.
Remember that even a well-calibrated model loses regularly. A pick with a 70% chance still loses three times in ten, and those losses arrive in clusters. Your bankroll has to survive the bad runs for the long-run edge to matter.
Bet responsibly
No football prediction is guaranteed, and a published confidence score is a statistical estimate, not a promise. Only stake what you can afford to lose, set limits before you start and never chase losses. Betting is for adults only (18+, or the legal age where you live). If gambling is causing you harm, contact a local support organisation.